Now about the data,
since you are so eager to comment already about this even if it’s a work in progress we will have it.
First, unless you are a statistician or you have asked a good statistician who have 10+ experiences of field work and that you are agree to set up a conference call/video call with him/her and me and one of my fellow co-worker who happens to be a statistician researcher, I’m not interested in your thoughts about if it’s useless or not. If you want to setup that call, you can tackle me in private.
If it’s to say that you can go to other threads/playground. And yes I’m using the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority from Shopenhauer but from time to time I would like that the debate goes a bit beyond the simple discussion of PUBs. And yes I will enforce that policy with the help of a community manager, that’s clearly not an issue for me.
On the other hand, if you want to improve the list with new ideas to cross refenrecing data for examples, you are most than welcome.
So for those who only wants to debate as if it is useless or not you can go somewhere else, thank you. And I’m asking @nawthor officially to close that threads from time to time if it goes off course.
Besides that, about the data.
As a good statistician would say, data won’t go without context.
What is the context here? The sell of a tablet. And a very specific one.
This tablet is not known from a large public. It has not been sold in any big brands shops nor has been presented in big league journals across the world. And no Linus tech tips is not a reference. It’s only a reference for those who are already interested in technology on a very high level.
So your grandpa or grandma didn’t hear about it besides maybe because of you.
So 100k + sells didn’t happen. That’s a fantasy at the moment. NOT a reality.
So the people who actually bought that thing are already used to go to forums, register, read and post.
We are not speaking about the average people here but actually a very small group of public that would have come to know about the existence of this tablet and who actually could tell the difference between that and an ipad.
So because of that context you can assume that a good proportion is already on the forum. A smaller proportion of them, as in any social movement, have open their mouth.
Because of the magic of the probabilities, there is no way that there has been more than ~700-800 orders that day. So there is NO way that there has been a #2000+ order number.
The reason is simple, the probabilistic law is as that, if every range is represented continuously in a subset of data that has not been under human control (so, random in other words) (human is really bad at randomization) then there is probabilisticly no chance that the global set of data goes higher or lower outside the margin of error correlated. And again, this subset of data I compiled has been from 2 major threads on this forum + the ones messaging to me.
Again let’s discuss that around a conference call in private if you disagree, I would be more happy to discuss that vocally with my colleague and yourself and your expert
So no the orders is from #1200 to #1910 with a small margin of errors of course. Again that’s not a debate here, unless you want to set up that conference call otherwise go discuss somewhere else.
So because of all those assumptions which are actually sure things. We can deduce the percentage represented here.
So as I stated before, I will repeat myself. It’s a thread where you need to be constructive and bring new ideas to improve this wiki form or the cross-referencing. And again I thanks @Wickedly for his thoughts about how to present the list better as I don’t do that usually since I have assistants who are much more capable than me for doing that.
The end goal of this wiki will be to improve the situation of logistic and present an alternate way to manage and prioritize orders based on the potential wrong doing or erratic behavior of the past. At the same time and on a more short term, it will be a tool for people to have a global image of the state of the deliveries and number of people who are still in the same situation.
Again, if you want to have a debate about this with me we can do this privately, since I started the thread I would respectfully ask you to find somewhere else to debate that or improve this thing with new ideas. If not, I will ask @nawthor to intervene at some point.
Thank you for your understanding.